Introduction - Growth scenarios
The United Nations predicts the world population will increase from 7.3 billion
to 9.7 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100.
The UK population at the 2011 census was 63M. The Office of National Statistic’s median population forecast for 2050 is 78 million, and for 2080 it is 82 million. For high life expectancy it is 80M and 90M.
Additionally, in 2015 1.8 million households were on Council waiting lists which represents approximately 5M persons who already need housing.
Thus to house all the existing (5M) and forecast (15M to 19M) demand the UK must provide for at least 20 million additional persons by 2050 and 24 million by 2080.
To put the figures in perspective, to house 24M people in Howards 30,000 person towns would require 800 new Garden Cities.
ConnectedCities is a means to accommodate this growth with the minimum impact on the existing population and settlements, and with the least traffic generation and energy usage.
Each area is required to provide for at least its pro rata portion, either internally or by assisting other areas to shoulder an additional share of the burden.
The metropolises may decide to accommodate their share internally, in which case the population of London will rise from 8.2m to 10.8M by 2050 and 11.3M by 2080. Birmingham will rise from 1.1M to 1.4M and 1.5M. To do so in sustainable locations will be easiest if growth is focused on pedsheds of rail stations. A good example is Lewisham in SE London where the population around the station has grown from 500 to nearly 5000. Alternatively the metropolises may choose to transfer their growth to adjacent ConnectedCities.
Broadly three projections are possible.
No Green Belt Development in the South East.
Growth has continued but in the SE the district and parish councils and the pressure groups have successfully defended the whole of the green belt against development, even where it’s within walking distance of a station. There are no new stations. The whole burden of residential growth has fallen on the pedsheds of the existing stations and has spilled out into the neighbourhoods of the hub towns, which now have numerous tentacles served by high quality bus services and PRT. In the pedsheds of the stations, comprehensive redevelopment has produced a much more compact urban form, visibly contrasting with the surrounding areas.
Elsewhere in the country there are many ConnectedCities on greatly upgraded rail lines. They have benefited from the financial incentives to expand, building new green towns and new green quarters.
Evenly Distributed Growth
By either building on green belt land within existing station pedsheds, or creating new green towns around new stations, both the South East and the rest of the country are growing at about the same rate. Along most existing railways in the country there are ConnectedCities, each with a couple of new stations on greenfield sites at the centre of a new town. Freight and passengers are distributed to local destinations by small automated rail vehicles, radically increasing the competitiveness of businesses in the new ConnectedCities.
Market Driven South East Expansion
No attempt has been made to divert growth to the regions. As a result South East England and London have continued to grow at 9% per decade they it did between 2001-11. By 2050 they have a population of nearly 23M, and by 2080 29M. All existing railways in the SE have ConnectedCities along their length with many new stations, mostly serving new green towns and new green quarters. New interurban routes have been built linking hub towns.